No data advantage over the book or exchange, and arbitrage is banned on our sportsbooks. So the only admissible edge is (a) reaction speed to public shocks applied to precomputed conditional fair values, or (b) structural mispricing — each proven against a null before any capital. The campaign's refined law: an edge = determination × resting-dumb-flow. Most “edges” are noise; honest negatives are the point.
Experiments run
30 + 2 PhDs
Every one pre-registered before it ran; every negative logged, not softened.
Across the 4 live shadows. 030-F: 0 entries, 0 settled · window open. Windows opened 2026-07-23.
Live forward shadows — autonomous on the VPS
Track
Mechanism class
Host
Live tally
Gate
030-F
structural (FLB + carry)
LIVE (VPS)
0 logged · window open
60 settled or Jan 2027
006F
calendar-Δ basis
LIVE (VPS)
0 logged · first confirmatory CPI Aug 12
FOMC Jul 29 · CPI Aug 12
027-F
slow provisionality
LIVE (VPS)
0 logged · no takes yet
fwd n≥25 or Jul 2027
012F
calendar-Δ pin
LIVE (VPS)
0 logged · first take Aug 3
first take Aug 3
Runs 24/7 as isolated, resource-capped wnba-* systemd units (own venv, never touches the trading book). Live entry parameters withheld (signal protection).
Verdict calendar
Jul 29FOMC — 006F first live event + cross-venue basis reading
Aug 1–13National Bank Open — tennis retirement-repricing window
Aug 3012F first monthly forward take
Aug 12CPI — 006F first confirmatory cross-venue event
~Jan 2027030-F ForecastEx bond forward gate
Where edge is, and isn't
Fertile
Calendar-protected deltas on makerless venues. The 2–15 min human-ops band where semi-automated desks reprice. Favorite-longshot + coupon carry on ForecastEx, where the usual killers (dead capital, fees) are structurally absent.
Barren
Anything a sub-second bot already colonized. Efficient closes. Insider / pre-public info (a regulatory tripwire, permanently off-limits). Walled venues.
The moving wall
Reachable edges are real but small; the biggest structural play (a legal cross-venue arb corridor) is gated on Wealthsimple Predict reaching general availability. Posture: measure now, be frozen and ready when the wall moves.